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Can Polyester Bottles Go Out As Usual?

2019/8/7 15:40:00 0

At present, commodity market is increasingly worried about the sharp rise of trade tensions. In the face of potential escalation of international trade friction, products with a certain proportion of imports and exports are becoming increasingly uneasy. Under the influence of weak foreign trade activities, PET bottles can not be good for themselves, and more enterprises are actively looking for new foreign trade partners.

Source: lung Chung

The export volume of China's pet bottle has been growing since 2016. As of June, the export volume of PET bottles in 2019 totaled 1 million 643 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 21.71% over the same period last year, while the volume of exports in June was 238 thousand and 100 tons, a decrease of 50 thousand tons from last month, a decrease of 17.36%. Bottle end cost PTA prices remain high, resulting in domestic PET bottle production enterprises profit losses, the average profit margin of bottles in July 2019 was -31.99 yuan / ton, so it is expected that exports will continue to decline in July. With the increasingly fierce international trade relations, the stability of bottle export has been challenged. The weakness of foreign trade orders in polyester bottle production enterprises is a drag on demand growth, and continuous high tariff barriers affect investment enthusiasm of enterprises. The instability of international trade relations has led more and more enterprises to consider going out to build factories.

1-6 Monthly PET bottle exports top ten countries

Unit: ton

Two thousand and nineteen year		Two thousand and eighteen year		Two thousand and seventeen year
Production and marketing country	Export volume	Production and marketing country	Export volume	Production and marketing country	Export volume
India	One hundred and sixty-eight thousand three hundred and seventy-eight point six five	South Africa	Seventy-two thousand six hundred and sixty-one point one five	Japan	Two hundred and thirteen thousand six hundred and twenty-one point nine eight
The Philippines	Eighty thousand nine hundred and ninety-three point seven zero	India	Seventy-one thousand five hundred and seventy-two point six eight	The Philippines	Sixty-three thousand nine hundred and seventy-eight point five zero
Russian federation	Eighty thousand four hundred and thirty-eight	Algeria	Seventy thousand nine hundred and twenty-eight	Indonesia	Fifty-two thousand and eighty-eight point two zero
Algeria	Seventy-four thousand and thirty	Egypt	Sixty-six thousand eight hundred and forty-six point four four	India	Forty-five thousand two hundred and thirty-seven
Ukraine	Sixty-three thousand one hundred and eighty-nine point five zero	Russian federation	Sixty-four thousand three hundred and two point five zero	Russian federation	Forty-two thousand three hundred and sixty-nine
Peru	Fifty-eight thousand and fifty-eight	The Philippines	Sixty-four thousand and forty-three point eight zero	Ukraine	Thirty-nine thousand and six hundred
Chile	Forty-seven thousand one hundred and eighty-six point eight five	Ukraine	Fifty-two thousand and fifty-five point three zero	Chile	Thirty thousand nine hundred and thirty-two point eight zero
Egypt	Forty-five thousand six hundred and seventy-eight	Indonesia	Fifty-one thousand seven hundred and forty-one point one five	Algeria	Thirty thousand six hundred and twenty-four
The Republic of Korea	Forty-three thousand three hundred and sixty-one point four eight	Peru	Forty-two thousand seven hundred and forty point three zero	Peru	Thirty thousand two hundred and forty-two
Indonesia	Thirty-eight thousand eight hundred and seventy-six point six zero	Turkey	Forty-one thousand four hundred and ninety-three point one zero	Australia	Twenty-five thousand five hundred and ninety-two point eight five

According to market sources, South Africa plans to impose anti-dumping duties on China's PET chips starting next year. Trade disputes escalate, and more and more countries are expected to adopt such trade protection. According to the above table, South Africa imported 72 thousand and 700 tons and 24 thousand and 200 tons of bottle flakes from China in 2018 and 2017 respectively, and exported 25 thousand and 600 tons of polyester bottles to South Africa in 2019. The export of bottles can not go to countries that impose anti-dumping duties on our country, nor can the EU, the United States or Japan.

US dollar to RMB exchange rate chart

RMB's "breaking 7" will make China's export commodity prices more competitive in the short term, but considering that the depreciation process is difficult to sustain for a long time, the export promotion role is limited. According to a PET bottle factory in East China feedback: in the past, bottle orders were sold, and the order was normally maintained for 40-50 days. The order is obviously insufficient now, probably only in about 25 days. And this year's peak season is not prosperous. In 2018, 4-6 is the peak season, and there is no change this year. Foreign orders are insufficient, and the pace of foreign purchases this year is different from that of last year. In 2018, PET bottle exports accounted for about 45% of the total output, with a quantity of more than 1 million tons. This year's goal is to catch up with 1 million tons. In 2019, the proportion of exports in April was still 45%, but after the domestic tax reform in April, the price competitiveness of products was insufficient and the volume of exports declined. Now the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the export of good bottles, the price of bottle flakes can be increased, but foreign demand continues to be uneven.

At present, the market adjustment has not yet ended, and if the trade issue is not eased, the RMB may weaken further. For example, the main export countries of bottle flake export anti-dumping investigations on PET bottles in China. If the anti-dumping duty is imposed later, it will affect the export volume of China's pet bottle flakes.