Yarn Enterprises Throw Inventory &Nbsp; Zheng Cotton Pressure Has Begun To Weaken.

After 1109 years, the main contract of zhengmian main force came down after a record high of 34870 yuan / ton, and the center of oscillation gradually moved down, and the weaker characteristics gradually emerged. Spot prices also showed signs of loosening in the near future.

Textile enterprises have a large stock of cotton. lint Deal is light.

When cotton prices rose last year, cotton growers, cotton processing enterprises, traders, textile enterprises and other participants in the cotton industry chain were highly consistent in their mentality of bullish. However, after the Spring Festival this year, textile enterprises failed to usher in a warmer period of consumption, yarn sales were sluggish, coupled with tightened monetary policy and no easing recruitment difficulties. Against this background, reducing inventory and accelerating capital transfer have become the first choice for textile enterprises to cope with their predicament.

According to a survey conducted by the China cotton information network at the end of February for the textile enterprises with a total volume of 12 million 330 thousand spindles, the stock of textile enterprises dropped slightly to 1 million 236 thousand and 700 tons, while the yarn and grey fabric inventory increased. The average monthly cotton consumption in China is about 900 thousand tons. Spinning cotton Inventory is still in excess of January. Textile enterprises entered the inventory cycle, the desire to buy lint in the near future is weak, and spot lint is light. In the spot market, high-grade Xinjiang cotton is still relatively strong due to limited resources, while the low grade cotton prices in the mainland have loosened and the shipments of cotton enterprises will be stronger.

　　 New cotton Increase in planting area and pressure on cotton price

At the end of March, the US Department of agriculture will announce the intention to report the main agricultural products in the new year. It is widely expected that the cotton planting area will increase significantly in 2011 and the cotton price will be under pressure. According to ICAC3's forecast, the global cotton planting area in 2011/2012 will expand by 7% to 36 million hectares, the highest in nearly 17 years. The total output of cotton is 27 million 560 thousand tons, an increase of 11% compared to this year. Among them, it is estimated that China's planting area will increase by 6%, and its output will reach 7 million 210 thousand tons, an increase of 13% over the same period last year. The output of cotton in India will reach 6 million 20 thousand tons, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year, and the output of cotton in the United States will reach 4 million 240 thousand tons, an increase of 6.3%. India Cotton Association recently predicted that India cotton sown area is expected to increase by 15%. China cotton information network survey at the end of February showed that in 2011, the national cotton planting area is expected to increase by 6% to 81 million 820 thousand mu, and the Ministry of agriculture's survey shows that the cotton planting intention in the whole country has increased by 5.4%. In addition, the cotton producing areas in recent years have spread the information about the increase of cotton seed sales this year. Although the prediction of cotton planting area in 2011 is different, the consensus has been reached on the increase of cotton planting area.

Market rumors: Cotton duty free import and textile export tax rebate rate reduction

In March 28th, along with the fall of Zheng cotton, the market rumors that cotton will be imported tax-free, and the textile export tax rebate rate will be reduced by 3 to 5 percentage points. Although the news has not been confirmed, it is still a short bomb for the disadvantaged cotton. At present, imported cotton is about 7000 yuan / ton higher than domestic cotton, while the import tax exemption is limited, but if it is in fact, it will help increase domestic cotton supply. To reduce the export rebate rate of textiles, if it is true, will have a greater negative impact on China's textile export market, and will have an obvious negative effect on cotton consumption.

In March 28th, Zheng cotton dropped sharply, and Zheng cotton rebounded steadily in the 28000 yuan / ton line in March 29th. From the technical perspective, Zheng cotton has fallen in the channel, and now the third wave is down. Taking into account the cost of cotton acquisition, warehousing costs and delivery costs, the 1109 contract's 28000 yuan / ton line is actually the average cost line of cotton enterprises, with a strong support of 28000 yuan / ton in the short term. Zheng cotton still has a chance to rebound after stabilizing. If Zheng cotton has broken down 28000 yuan / ton, the cotton market structure will be completely turned short. The panic selling of hoarding cotton enterprises will lead to a deeper fall in cotton prices. On the operation, it is suggested that cotton enterprises should speed up the sale of cotton, and grasp the opportunity of Zheng cotton's rebound, and actively carry out the selling of cotton stocks.

After 1109 years, the main contract of zhengmian main force came down after a record high of 34870 yuan / ton, and the center of oscillation gradually moved down, and the weaker characteristics gradually emerged. Spot prices also showed signs of loosening in the near future.